Not fair! šŸ“

SportsBall #57

Happy Friday! Before we start, just a heads up that we now have shop šŸ›ļø after hundreds, if not thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of requests. We sell just 3 things - all of which would surely make anyone happy during the holidays.

  • Shirts ($30)

  • Prints of our one-pagers ($15-$20)

  • High-resolution scans of every one-pager. Print yourself ($5)

Just imagine the look on a child's face on Christmas morning when they get a PDF of a drawing of how an expansion draft works in the WNBA.

Pure magic. ✨

On Sunday night, I was getting ready for the week, taking inventory of the to-do list, and ready to kick my feet up and take a graph break. Then Juan Soto signed with the New York Mets. āœļø

ā€œClaire do you think I need to make something for SportsBall about this?ā€ I say as I kick back on the couch.

Her: ā€œWell is it a big deal?ā€

Me: ā€œIt’s the largest contract in sports history worth almost a billion dollarsā€

Her: ā€œSounds kind of importantā€¦ā€

So here we are! Contracts like this are fascinating, especially when compared across different sports so we decided to zoom out and take a global perspective on what to expect the next time you see a jaw-dropping number like Juan Soto’s $765 million. 🤯

Vision šŸ‘ļø

When an athlete signs an astronomical contract, it’s always worth a closer look.

Sure, big numbers make us feel fuzzy, but not all contracts are created equal. šŸ™…ā€ā™‚ļø There are a few key variables to consider when evaluating a deal: size, term, and guaranteed money—all of which can vary dramatically across different sports.

Today, we’re here to teach you how to analyze these deals with a critical eye, so you won’t be misled by flashy headlines in the future. šŸ¤”

CHARTS šŸŒ

New Sherriff in town šŸ‘®

What could you buy with $765 million? I guess maybe a better question is what couldn’t you buy… šŸ’°

Juan Soto, likely THE best young player in baseball, just signed a 15-year, $765 million deal that will last him until the age of 41. Plus it’s all guaranteed. So if he gets injured or doesn’t play well ever again, he’s still cashing $51M to the bank account every year.

In the chart above, each dot represents one of the top 100 contracts by total value across all sports, with Juan’s deal deservedly sitting at the top. But it’s also the furthest to the right, marking it as the longest contract in baseball history. šŸ‘“

Now, let’s revisit that $51 million per year figure. By examining the slope of each dot on this chart, we can determine how much a player earns annually.

You guys remember ā€œrise over runā€ right? 🧮

Take these two contracts above for example: Jayson Tatum and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, both signed deals at approximately $315M in total šŸ‘Æ but Tatum’s deal spans five years, while Yamamoto’s stretches over twelve. A simple calculation reveals that Tatum earns $62 million per year—more than double Yamamoto’s meager $25.8 million annually. šŸ¤

Bet you never thought algebra would come into play this late in life.

With your refreshed y=mx+b knowledge in mind, one thing should immediately stand out here—the soccer contracts. āš½ļø Three of the top six contracts by value belong to soccer stars you’ve probably heard of: Messi, Ronaldo, and Karim Benzema.

Together, these three athletes boast over a billion followers on social media and are among the most recognizable people on the planet—especially outside the United States. šŸŒŽ

Now, about these contracts…

Messi āœļø
Leo Messi currently plays in the MLS, but his record-breaking contract dates back to his time with Barcelona. Signed in 2017, it was worth an astonishing $674 million over four years. That’s just shy of $170 million per year and, when broken down further, an incredible $4.4 million per game he played.

Ronaldo and Benzema āœļø
Both megastars were in the later stages of their careers when they signed with Saudi clubs in 2023. Despite the short contracts—2.5 years for Ronaldo and 2 years for Benzema—the numbers are staggering: $536 million and $447 million, respectively. On a per-year basis, that’s $214 million for Ronaldo and $223 million for Benzema—more than four times Juan Soto’s annual figure we discussed earlier.

You may have gathered this by now but there isn’t a salary cap šŸ™… in global soccer especially not in Saudi soccer leagues… These teams can spend to their heart’s, wallet’s, or Crown Prince’s desire to bring fans and attention to their teams which we see on display with all 3 of these contracts.

Take a look at our technical grouping mechanism (hand-drawing on a graph), and you’ll notice how these high-value baseball contracts often stretch over an extended period of time. šŸ“…

But why? I’m certainly not the purveyor of absolute truth on this matter but a lot of it comes down to the lack of a salary cap in the MLB. Ownership groups can spend freely and craft more ā€œcreativeā€ deals to manage massive expenses—like Shohei Ohtani’s deferred money.

There’s a significant amount of ā€œwe’ll deal with it laterā€ in baseball these days. But when you’re worth $21 billion, like the Mets’ owner, it probably doesn’t matter if Juan Soto isn’t the same man he once was in 2034. šŸ‘“

Football and basketball contracts are arguably the most "grounded in reality" of any professional sports deals (aside from the NHL, which didn’t have representation in the top 100 😭). With a salary cap in place, front offices must conduct meticulous due diligence to keep a team healthy and winning. šŸ†

Through that process, key questions arise like how much is this player truly worth to the team? What value do they bring to the franchise? How much do they contribute to winning?

These questions seem often overlooked in baseball contracts… šŸ™ˆ

The graph above shows that the highest-value NBA and NFL contracts typically fall within 4 to 6 years. Which makes sense since the CBA strictly limits contract lengths - teams can sign free agents for a maximum of 4 years, extend their own players for up to 5 years, or extend rookies or veterans for up to 6 years.

In the NFL, while there’s no limit on contract length, the league’s performance-driven nature means teams are cautious. Injury risks and performance uncertainties make decade-long commitments rare. šŸ”Ž

That said, exceptions exist for players like Patrick Mahomes, a proven franchise star whose 10-year deal reflects his unparalleled value. Such risks aren’t taken lightly on less established players.

OTHER STUFF WE MADE šŸŽ„

Eras Tour x Sports šŸŽ¤

Early Signing Day in College Football āœļø

How Expansion Drafts work šŸ“‹

Bryson DeChambeau Challenge ā›³ļø

Our crazy idea for SF šŸŒ‰

Thanks for reading and please feel free to reach out with any feedback! Love it or hate it we’re all ears šŸ‘

— Claire and Riley

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