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Not fair! š
SportsBall #57
Happy Friday! Before we start, just a heads up that we now have shop šļø after hundreds, if not thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of requests. We sell just 3 things - all of which would surely make anyone happy during the holidays.
Shirts ($30)
Prints of our one-pagers ($15-$20)
High-resolution scans of every one-pager. Print yourself ($5)
Just imagine the look on a child's face on Christmas morning when they get a PDF of a drawing of how an expansion draft works in the WNBA.
Pure magic. āØ
On Sunday night, I was getting ready for the week, taking inventory of the to-do list, and ready to kick my feet up and take a graph break. Then Juan Soto signed with the New York Mets. āļø
āClaire do you think I need to make something for SportsBall about this?ā I say as I kick back on the couch.
Her: āWell is it a big deal?ā
Me: āItās the largest contract in sports history worth almost a billion dollarsā
Her: āSounds kind of importantā¦ā
So here we are! Contracts like this are fascinating, especially when compared across different sports so we decided to zoom out and take a global perspective on what to expect the next time you see a jaw-dropping number like Juan Sotoās $765 million. š¤Æ
Vision šļø
When an athlete signs an astronomical contract, itās always worth a closer look.
Sure, big numbers make us feel fuzzy, but not all contracts are created equal. š āāļø There are a few key variables to consider when evaluating a deal: size, term, and guaranteed moneyāall of which can vary dramatically across different sports.
Today, weāre here to teach you how to analyze these deals with a critical eye, so you wonāt be misled by flashy headlines in the future. š¤
CHARTS š
New Sherriff in town š®
What could you buy with $765 million? I guess maybe a better question is what couldnāt you buyā¦ š°
Juan Soto, likely THE best young player in baseball, just signed a 15-year, $765 million deal that will last him until the age of 41. Plus itās all guaranteed. So if he gets injured or doesnāt play well ever again, heās still cashing $51M to the bank account every year.
In the chart above, each dot represents one of the top 100 contracts by total value across all sports, with Juanās deal deservedly sitting at the top. But itās also the furthest to the right, marking it as the longest contract in baseball history. š“
Now, letās revisit that $51 million per year figure. By examining the slope of each dot on this chart, we can determine how much a player earns annually.
You guys remember ārise over runā right? š§®
Take these two contracts above for example: Jayson Tatum and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, both signed deals at approximately $315M in total šÆ but Tatumās deal spans five years, while Yamamotoās stretches over twelve. A simple calculation reveals that Tatum earns $62 million per yearāmore than double Yamamotoās meager $25.8 million annually. š¤
Bet you never thought algebra would come into play this late in life.
With your refreshed y=mx+b knowledge in mind, one thing should immediately stand out hereāthe soccer contracts. ā½ļø Three of the top six contracts by value belong to soccer stars youāve probably heard of: Messi, Ronaldo, and Karim Benzema.
Together, these three athletes boast over a billion followers on social media and are among the most recognizable people on the planetāespecially outside the United States. š
Now, about these contractsā¦
Messi āļø
Leo Messi currently plays in the MLS, but his record-breaking contract dates back to his time with Barcelona. Signed in 2017, it was worth an astonishing $674 million over four years. Thatās just shy of $170 million per year and, when broken down further, an incredible $4.4 million per game he played.
Ronaldo and Benzema āļø
Both megastars were in the later stages of their careers when they signed with Saudi clubs in 2023. Despite the short contractsā2.5 years for Ronaldo and 2 years for Benzemaāthe numbers are staggering: $536 million and $447 million, respectively. On a per-year basis, thatās $214 million for Ronaldo and $223 million for Benzemaāmore than four times Juan Sotoās annual figure we discussed earlier.
You may have gathered this by now but there isnāt a salary cap š in global soccer especially not in Saudi soccer leaguesā¦ These teams can spend to their heartās, walletās, or Crown Princeās desire to bring fans and attention to their teams which we see on display with all 3 of these contracts.
Take a look at our technical grouping mechanism (hand-drawing on a graph), and youāll notice how these high-value baseball contracts often stretch over an extended period of time. š
But why? Iām certainly not the purveyor of absolute truth on this matter but a lot of it comes down to the lack of a salary cap in the MLB. Ownership groups can spend freely and craft more ācreativeā deals to manage massive expensesālike Shohei Ohtaniās deferred money.
Thereās a significant amount of āweāll deal with it laterā in baseball these days. But when youāre worth $21 billion, like the Metsā owner, it probably doesnāt matter if Juan Soto isnāt the same man he once was in 2034. š“
Football and basketball contracts are arguably the most "grounded in reality" of any professional sports deals (aside from the NHL, which didnāt have representation in the top 100 š). With a salary cap in place, front offices must conduct meticulous due diligence to keep a team healthy and winning. š
Through that process, key questions arise like how much is this player truly worth to the team? What value do they bring to the franchise? How much do they contribute to winning?
These questions seem often overlooked in baseball contractsā¦ š
The graph above shows that the highest-value NBA and NFL contracts typically fall within 4 to 6 years. Which makes sense since the CBA strictly limits contract lengths - teams can sign free agents for a maximum of 4 years, extend their own players for up to 5 years, or extend rookies or veterans for up to 6 years.
In the NFL, while thereās no limit on contract length, the leagueās performance-driven nature means teams are cautious. Injury risks and performance uncertainties make decade-long commitments rare. š
That said, exceptions exist for players like Patrick Mahomes, a proven franchise star whose 10-year deal reflects his unparalleled value. Such risks arenāt taken lightly on less established players.
OTHER STUFF WE MADE š„
Eras Tour x Sports š¤
Early Signing Day in College Football āļø
How Expansion Drafts work š
Bryson DeChambeau Challenge ā³ļø
Our crazy idea for SF š
Thanks for reading and please feel free to reach out with any feedback! Love it or hate it weāre all ears š
ā Claire and Riley
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